Doing some math

Matthew Hoy
By Matthew Hoy on October 22, 2009

The head of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, Christina Romer, made a rather stunning statement today.

The government's economic stimulus spending has already had its biggest impact and probably won't contribute to significant growth next year, a top White House adviser said Thursday.

Christina Romer, the chair of President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, said the initial jolt of the $787 billion stimulus expanded the economy in the second and third quarters of this year. But she said the remaining spending will simply keep the economy from slipping.

"By mid-2010," she said, "fiscal stimulus will likely be contributing little to further growth."

That assessment underscored the fragility of an economic recovery marked by stubbornly high unemployment.

Romer said the government has already spent $194 billion of the total stimulus package, most of it in tax cuts, aid to states and unemployment and food stamps. In addition, she said, $146 billion of spending had been already obligated.

Romer, testifying before Congress' Joint Economic Committee, said that as of August the stimulus had created or saved 600,000 to 1.5 million jobs. She said a premature end to the stimulus would be "misguided."

"This is not a normal recovery," she said. "Coming out of this, we've got lots of things working against us," she said.

Unemployment will remain high, at or above 9.6 percent, through the end of 2010, Romer predicted.

Let’s do the math. According to Romer’s numbers, the $194 billion that’s already been spent “saved or created” 1.5 million jobs – let’s do this as a best-case scenario. (For the record, I think “saved or created” is a crock.) Each of the 1.5 million jobs that Romer talks about cost the U.S. taxpayer $129,333.33.

Romer says that the remaining $593 billion needs to be spent to prevent “slippage” in the economy and “will likely be contributing little to further growth.” So what does that mean in jobs? Does the $593 mean zero jobs “saved or created?” Or just less what we’ve already saved or created? Let’s assume it is the latter. What are the 1.499 million jobs “saved or created” from the remainder of the stimulus package going to cost?

$395,597.06

There had to be a better way to do this. Anyone who continues to defend this stimulus package is an idiot or a fool. Or maybe both.

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