How do you like it now?

Matthew Hoy
By Matthew Hoy on March 26, 2010

Now that the Obamacare is the law of the land, we’re finally getting an idea of how this is really going to work. As House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, they had to pass the bill before we could know what’s in it.

So what is in it?

Are premiums going to go down 3000 percent as President Obama promised? No. (He reportedly meant to say they would go down $3,000 for the average family, but that’s not going to happen either.)

No, premiums are going to go up.

But the president's assurance is based on a selective reading of a Congressional Budget Office report that found most individuals would probably buy better, more expensive coverage than what's available today.

And Obama skips over an important caveat: The budget office didn't say premiums would be lower than currently. It said premiums for some people would be lower than they would have been without the bill. Premiums for others would be higher.

With the U.S. population getting older, and medical science pushing the technological envelope, there's very little reason to think premiums will go down. The best Obama can hope for is to slow the pace of increases.

How about creating jobs? Other than the 16,500 at the IRSdon’t hold your breath on this one.

The health care overhaul will cost U.S. companies billions and make them more likely to drop prescription drug coverage for retirees because of a change in how the government subsidizes those benefits.

Well, there goes getting to keep your coverage if you like what you’ve got now too. And think about the perverse changes in how the law works here. The government is going to raise taxes on the prescription drug benefits some companies provide their retirees – apart from Medicare. So, they’re going to make it more expensive for these companies to keep their promises and it’s likely that many of them won’t be able to keep their promises and still compete in the global marketplace.

So, what happens? These companies dump the seniors into Medicare – saving them some money but at the same time depriving the government of an estimated $4.5 billion over 10 years in tax revenues. So, the government isn’t going to get the tax money as companies try to avoid taxes and at the same time all of these seniors will be put into Medicare at the same time Congress is promising to cut about $500 billion from that program.

Does anyone see this working?

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