Our intelligence, Iran's intentions
You'd think that five years after the wholesale failure of U.S. intelligence agencies (and those of the rest of the world) to determine the state of Iraq's WMD programs that their guesstimates would be viewed with a healthy dose of skepticism. I'm not sure that's what is happening.
Rand Beers, who resigned from Bush's National Security Council just before the Iraq war, said the report should derail any appetite for war on the administration's part, and should reinvigorate regional diplomacy. "The new NIE throws cold water on the efforts of those urging military confrontation with Iran," he said.
Senior intelligence officials said Monday they failed to detect Iran's fall 2003 halt in nuclear weapons development in time to reflect it in the 2005 estimate.
That 2005 estimate came to the exact opposition conclusion as the 2007 estimate released Monday. [The report is here in PDF format.] The latest guesstimate still puts Iran on track for constructing a nuclear weapon -- if they hate the Jews enough -- at sometime between 2009 and 2015.
Despite the worst caricatures of the heads-in-the-sand left, no "neocons" want a war with Iran -- we'd much prefer that nation's youth rise up and overthrow the mullahs. But we're also unwilling to take military action off the table. The report suggests that "international pressure" halted the military aspect of Iran's nuke project -- which sounds somewhat politically correct. I suspect some of it may have been due not to international pressure, but the fact that the U.S. had overthrown hostile regimes in two neighboring countries with relative ease. It got Libya's attention -- it gave up its WMD programs. I suspect that the Iranians might have been really worried that the U.S. leadership was as crazy as Imadinnerjacket is.
It would be wise for politicians to not take to waving this report around as justification for their stand on Iran -- the report is likely flawed and, who knows, in two years the intelligence community may do another flip-flop.
For more questions and commentary:
0 comments on “Our intelligence, Iran's intentions”
Tags
I hope most Amarican citizen understand how much the terrorist wants to will American mind to make the confusing. Please dont make another Pear Harpor happen
before its too late. stand up and join the Prestident of the US to stop the Terrorist to dominate the world. please do not regret this life we all enjoy
today. No more Slave/ we all want to live in peace. Please dont listen to those peolem againts our Goverment of the United State of America Presitend. Please
understand how lucky we are all under the US Goverment