This is why we have elections

Matthew Hoy
By Matthew Hoy on May 11, 2011

Because pollsters certainly can’t be trusted—especially those acting under the auspices of the so-called unbiased media. The latest AP poll has President Obama’s approval rating at 60 percent and 52 percent of people approve of the way he’s handling the economy. Unemployment? 52 percent approve. Healthcare? 54 percent approve.

Who would’ve expected that killing Osama bin Laden could boost Obama’s other numbers? And those economic numbers? You’d think that unemployment climbing back up to 9 percent would’ve put a damper on those.

But not for the AP, which has Democrats at 46 percent of the electorate vs. 29 percent GOP. Have the political winds really shifted that far back to the Democrats since the Republicans won 63 House seats last year? Heck, those numbers are better than 2008 when Obama won the presidency. Are we seriously to believe that people are feeling more “hope and change” today than they were in November 2008?

The Campaign Spot’s Jim Geraghty:

I appreciate the AP noting the criticism. They emphasize that their sample hasn’t changed significantly from the immediately preceding poll, where the sample split 45 percent Democrat, 33 percent Republican. But the question isn’t really whether the sample changed too much from their poll in April; the question is whether the sample accurately reflects the American public at large, and whether we indeed have 1.63 Democrats in this country for every 1 Republican. If their sample had an unrealistic proportion of Democrats one month, it’s entirely possible they can get a similar unrealistic proportion the following month.

As mentioned above, the Gallup sample tells a different story, with the parties at rough parity. Rasmussen tells a different story, with the parties at rough parity. The most recent Reuters poll puts the two major parties at rough parity. The most recent Pew poll shows Democrats ahead by 7 percentage points.

Looking on the bright side, if a 17 point advantage to the Democrats only gets Obama’s approval on the economy to 52 percent, then he’s in trouble.

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