What do the Democrats do?

Matthew Hoy
By Matthew Hoy on April 30, 2008

The 2008 presidential election looked like the best of all possible worlds for the Democrats. Bush is hugely unpopular. The economy appears on a downward slide. U.S. troops are still in Iraq.

The only additional thing they could've asked for was for the GOP to nominate Dick Cheney.

And then Barack Obama happened.

Obama was an eloquent speaker. He was extremely photogenic. He was an African-American. He was young.

And the liberal press lost its mind. MSNBC's Chris Matthews confessed that Obama gave him a funny feeling (in a good way, apparently) in his leg. NBC's Lee Cowan confessed that Obama made "his knees quake." So the press gave him a pass. They didn't look into his background. They didn't look at his history. They didn't look at his ultraliberal voting record -- one that belied his claims that he was someone who could or would work with Republicans. The listened to his rhetoric, and it was good.

Now, here we are with just more than a month left in the primary calendar and the Democrats have a problem. Neither Obama nor Sen. Hillary Clinton can win enough delegates in the Democratic Party's foolish proportion method for selecting delegates.

We're left with cases:

The case for Obama:

  • He has more delegates (though not enough to win)
  • He has won more popular votes
  • He can bring youth and energy to the Democratic Party

The case for Clinton:

  • She's won the big states that the Democrats need to win to take the White House
  • If you include the disenfranchised voters of Florida and Michigan (disenfranchised because those state party organizations broke the rules on when to hold their primaries), then she has the edge in the popular vote.
  • She has more experience than Obama.

There's one more area where Clinton may have the advantage over Obama: Hillary's history and scandals are well-known. She has been vetted. Obama is a crap shoot. Is this the last we'll hear of Rev. Jeremiah Wright? Will unrepentant terrorists Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn cause Obama more trouble? What will the trial of Obama fund-raiser Tony Rezko turn up.

Here's where it becomes really tough. Can the Democratic Party establishment -- those superdelegates who will decide the outcome of this race -- throw the nomination to Clinton while Obama holds the popular vote and regular delegate lead?

If they do choose Clinton, does that so outrage and disillusion African-American voters that they stay home -- a move that could hand Sen. John McCain a 49-state landslide?

If they go with Obama, does his inexperience and naivete -- not to mention potential scandals -- make him an easy target for McCain? Nevermind the GOP-funded 527s that will give the Weather Underground more press than it's received in decades.

It may turn out that the Democrats in 2008 manage an implosion of historic proportions. With everything going for them, they may find themselves fuming for four more years with John McCain in the White House.

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