There's an interesting column in next week's BusinessWeek on what could be the first newspaper to ditch the "paper."

Killing printrequires acknowledging not just that the old mode is dead but also that the future means less revenue and shrunken staffs. This is why it makes sense soonest at a money-losing newspaper already grappling with those realities, and one in a major city that generates enough local ad dollars to support a sizable online business.

On paper, San Francisco is perfect: a Web-centric town, a cash-drain daily, and private ownership. Which does not mean this will happen.

The author, Jon Fine, suggests that the time frame for this happening is 18-24 months.

It's not going to happen. Newspapers will hold fast to the print product long after it's should be dead and buried.

When should we be reaching that point? Well, the iPhone is certainly bringing us closer. We'll reach the tipping point when WiFi connections are ubiquitous and free and when the vast majority of the population has a product that can download news content on demand -- whether that be through a PDA, cellphone or some form of electronic paper.

We need at least another decade.