Donning my tinfoil cap

Matthew Hoy
By Matthew Hoy on February 6, 2008

The sound wasn't turned up on the TV set closest to my desk this evening as the Super Tuesday returns rolled in, so I didn't hear any explanations on air for this curiosity/conspiracy that I'm about to describe. I'm sure that there's a good explanation for all of this, but some super-pollster is going to have to explain this to me.

This is an image capture of CNN's Web site at around 7:30 p.m. PST. I've highlighted the Alabama and North Dakota returns.

You will note that both states have the exact same percentage of precints reporting -- 83 percent -- yet CNN has called Alabama for Huckabee with a 3 point margin but hasn't called North Dakota for Romney with a 14 point margin.

This next screenshot was taken at 8:05 p.m. PST.

The percentage of precints reporting has jumped from 83 to 98, yet Romney's margin has only decreased by 1 point -- which could be nothing more than a rounding error.

My question: Why the delay in calling North Dakota for Romney?

My conspiracy theory: McCain was raking in many of the early states. Where McCain wasn't winning, Huckabee was -- picking up a bunch of Southern states. Things were looking bad for Romney, however, they were hoping and praying that the (very erroneous) Zogby polling showing a potential Romney victory in California was accurate. The longer CNN could put off announcing Romney victories anywhere, the more that could depress Romney turnout in California so CNN waits until five minutes after California's polls close to annouce Romney picking up North Dakota.

Like I said before, I'm sure there's an innocent explanation for calling a Huckabee victory at 83 percent reporting and a 3 point margin while holding off on calling a Romney victory with 83 percent reporting and a 14 point margin. It's just that the explanation is not readily apparent to the layman.

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