Archive for October, 2008

31
Oct

The shrinking middle class

I’m not referring to the commonly held notion that the number of people in the so-called middle class is shrinking. Instead, I’m referring to the fact that the definition of people who will be getting a middle class tax cut from an Obama administration is shrinking.

Originally Sen. Barack Obama assured the American people that if you make less than $250,000 you’ll be getting a tax cut.

Then, in some stump speeches, the number miraculously changed to $200,000.

Nobel Prize winning columnist Paul Krugman revealed that the Bush tax cuts would be rolled back (i.e. taxes raised) on the top to quintiles of taxpayers — which is tragically those making $182,500 or more.

Then Joe the six-term senator started saying that everyone making less than $150,000 a year would get a tax cut.

Now, you’ve got Obama surrogate Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico putting the number at $120,000.

Pretty soon that middle class tax cut promise will go the way of the I’ll-take-public-financing-if-the-Republican-candidated-does-too promise.

Don’t say you weren’t warned.

31
Oct

Posting slowdown

Posting has slowed recently for three reasons.

First, there’s way too much meaningless horserace reporting going on right now. I don’t do horserace posts, so there’s not much posting.

Second, Fable 2.

Third, I’m working on a very long post (aka article) that’s already taken me 2+ hours and I figure I’m 1/3 of the way through with it. Hopefully I can get that done by Sunday.

31
Oct

Obama's fraudulent fundraising

The Washington Post returned to the issue of Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign’s refusal to turn on the basic Address Verification System on Wednesday, but it lets the Obama campaign get away with a whopper.

When asked whether the campaign takes steps to verify whether a donor’s name matches the name on the credit card used to make a payment, Obama’s campaign replied in an e-mail: “Name-matching is not a standard check conducted or made available in the credit card processing industry. We believe Visa and MasterCard do not even have the ability to do this.

Really? Then how are people able to donate to Obama using the names “Adolfe Hitler” or “Joe Stalin,” but those same fraudulent names are summarily refused at the McCain Web site.

As Ace notes with the assistance of someone experienced in the credit card processing business:

Because many of our colleagues in the media have failed to investigate the shenanigans of the Obama Campaign, I have taken upon myself to uncover some improprieties. One that has troubled me greatly is Obama’s very relaxed donation policies.

I have over 8 years experience working in the payment services industry. By
taking a closer look at Obama’s online donation site, I have noticed that
his team has left the door wide open for credit card fraud by not putting in
the security measures to ensure full visa/mastercard authorization
compliance. This is outright irresponsible behavior on the part of Obama’s
team and in direct violation of their agreement with Visa/Mastercard.

I did a test on his site. Acting as Joe Stalin, I went onto the Obama site
and donated $5.00. I used false information, address: 100 Red Square,
telephone number 323-666-1953, zip code 10001, Employer: Kremlin
Occupation: Dictator. I did use my valid credit card numbers and expiration
date. The typical security measures, Address Verification System and the
Card Validation Code are not present on the Obama site. So there is nothing
in place to verify who I am. (Please see attachment. [I have his attachment. I see no point in putting it up; we all know Obama's site allows this -- ace.]) I clicked submit. The transaction went through.

Then I went to McCain’s site, and entered in the same information. Joe
Stalin. $5.00. As you can see, my donation was rejected for errors.

* What’s the big deal? Obama has left the door open for anyone to run prepaid cards and foreign credit cards without proper screening. In addition, it is easy to run multi-transactions on the same card but under different aliases. In other words, an organization like Move On.org could run tens of thousands of transactions for millions of dollars using essentially cards belonging to only handful of very large liberal donors like George Soros, Peter Lewis and Eric Schmidt.

In addition, Obama’s site violates his agreement with Visa/Mastercard. Visa Mastercard regulations require each credit card acceptor to “obtain the 3 digit Card Validation Code [CVV2 found on the back of your credit card. 4 digits for American Express Cards] and submit this code with all authorization requests with respect to transactions where the card is not present…” [cite:] Visa/Master Program Guide.

(Please see attachment or go to Obama’s site. You will notice that Obama’s donation site does not have this code requirement, which is in direct violation of Visa/Mastercard regulations.)

Speculations as to why?

Many foreign credit cards do not have CVV2 codes. Requiring such codes would limit foreign donations.

Secondly, disabling the security allows would be credit card thieves to
“ping” numbers till they get a hit. In other words, a crook could simply
type in random numbers until he found one sequence that worked in some
fashion. That could give a thief a starting point for committing credit-card fraud. If all they had to do was type nonsense values for names and addresses, such as Doodad Pro, they could quickly determine which numbers were valid – and they could probably program bots to do that kind of work.

Read the entire thing. And take a deep breath before guessing why the media isn’t all over this.

28
Oct

I'm willing to PR for Nike

Two weeks ago Arien O’Connell ran the race of her life. The 24-year-old schoolteacher from New York City ran the San Francisco Nike Women’s Marathon in under three hours. She beat her own personal record by more than 12 minutes.

Officially, O’Connell finished 26th.

Twenty-five “elite” runners runners were given a 20 minute head start — so they wouldn’t have to weave their way through all the slow pokes. The top “elite” runner finished the race in 3 hours, 6 minutes.

Needless to say, “elite” womens’ times are usually around 2:30.

You’re probably wondering about O’Connell.

She finished in 2:55:11.

O’Connell, who describes herself as “a pretty good runner,” had never managed to break three hours in five previous marathons. But as soon as she started at 7 a.m. Sunday, she knew it was her day. In fact, when she crossed the finish line 26.2 miles later, her time of 2:55:11 was so unexpectedly fast that she burst into tears.

“I ran my best time by like 12 minutes, which is insane,” she said.

At the awards ceremony, the O’Connell clan looked on as the top times were announced and the “elite” female runners stepped forward to accept their trophies.

“They called out the third-place time and I thought, ‘I was faster than that,’ ” she said. “Then they called out the second-place time and I was faster than that. And then they called out the first-place time (3:06), and I said, ‘Heck, I’m faster than her first-place time, too.’ ”

Just to make sure, O’Connell strolled over to a results station and asked a race official to call up her time on the computer. There it was, some 11 minutes faster than the official winner.

“They were just flabbergasted,” O’Connell said. “I don’t think it ever crossed their minds.”

What was Nike’s response?

“At this point,” Nike media relations manager Tanya Lopez said Monday, “we’ve declared our winner.”

Bzzzzz! Wrong!

The proper response is: “We screwed up. We’re sorry. Arien O’Connell ran the fastest time and we’re going to do whatever we can to make it up to her.”

Three days later and a ton of blistering criticism later, Nike declared O’Connell "a winner."

And then there was the CYA explanation.

In the statement, Nike officials said that “because of their earlier start time, the runners in the elite group had no knowledge of the outstanding race Arien was running and could not adjust their strategies accordingly.”

To which San Francisco Chronicle writer C.W. Nevious properly retorted: “Yeah, Arien, why didn’t you tip them off that you were going to run the race of your life?”

So, Nike, I’m available and you get my first bit of advice free of charge: Your next running commercial should feature someone who’s not an “elite” athlete, but epitomizes the “Just do it” philosophy. I’ve heard about this 24-year-old schoolteacher in New York City who might be available if you asked nicely.

28
Oct

Reality-based editors

New York Times editor Bill Keller, apparently oblivious to the problems facing the newspaper industry, thinks the Times is doing just great.

My confidence in The Times rests on the obvious, overwhelming, growing demand for what we do.

Good. Because that demand sure isn’t reflected in your stock price.

And it’s not reflected in the latest circulation numbers. (Sunday; Daily)

Sunday paid circulation: THE NEW YORK TIMES — 1,438,585 — (-4.12%)

Daily paid circulation: NEW YORK TIMES — 1,000,665 — (-3.58%)

But everything is unicorns and rainbows at the Times.

Denial isn’t just a river in Egypt.

27
Oct

Physician heal thyself

New York Times editorial page editor Andrew Rosenthal spoke to journalism students last week and let’s just say that he was consistent in his dishonesty.

Let’s start with Rosenthal’s description of the dust-up earlier this year where the Times refused to run an op-ed by John McCain after affording the same opportunity to Barack Obama.

Talking about the controversy around Obamas [sic] published op-ed piece, followed by denying McCain the same opportunity – at least when you ask his campaign management – Rosenthal had the following words to say about a process that started with telling Senator Obama of what to write and what not.

“We can’t accept this piece but if you take out all those quotes from last week’s speech and the ones from the commercial and you focus less on attacking John McCain and you focus more on your own policies. And they sent us two more drafts and we accepted the third one.

“And when we accepted it I said to David Shipley, our editor, ‘okay here’s how this is gonna go. We are going to run this thing and the McCain people will ask for equal time. And we are going to give it to them because it’s only fair. And they are going to send us a horrible, unprintable op-ed piece. And we’re going to ask them for the same exact changes we asked Barack Obama for and we are never going to hear from them and they’re going to leak it to Drudge and attack us for dissing McCain and that is exactly what happened.

“Our public editor has criticized us. They sent in the piece. They called on a Thursday and wanted it to go on Sunday. I said ‘fine.’ Our editor said to them ‘you understand the rules, it can’t be a press release, it can’t be a rehash speech and we really don’t want you to just criticize Obama, we need to hear about your opinions.’

“They said ‘yes, yes, yes.’ They sent us a rehash speech that criticized Obama and said nothing about what McCain wanted. We wrote them back – a slightly inartfully worded email but basically said them same thing: ‘We can’t accept this.’ And they just went straight to Fox News, Drudge.”

I analyzed Shipley’s explanation at the time it occurred. I encourage you to read it because it reveals that Obama’s op-ed was nothing more than a rehash of earlier statements he’d already made. Shipley also demanded not McCain’s “opinions,” but timelines, troop levels, etc. — something that McCain continues to be opposed to.

Rosenthal also decided to slander conservatives in general as dishonest.

“[US Secretary of State] Condoleezza Rice is a particularly bad op-ed writer,” Rosenthal said. However, the problem doesn’t end there. “The problem with conservative columnists,” Rosenthal said, “is that many of them lie in print.”

Lying in print? The New York Times editorial page knows all about that.

27
Oct

I'm gonna call it karma

In my early journalism days as a reporter I interviewed Sen. Ted Stevens about a proposal to that he was pushing that would open a spaceport in Alaska. He wasn’t happy about the resulting article — or me.

Today, Stevens was found guilty on seven corruption counts.

Now, there’s probably no connection between the two incidents — but if you’re a public official, you might want to watch your mouth when it comes to me.

So, the Democrats are one step closer to reaching the filibuster-proof 60 seat threshold. That’s OK, because the GOP brand will be better without Stevens in the Senate.

26
Oct

Missing the point

The Washington Post has a report on the cover of today’s paper that offers an incomplete and cursory analysis of Sen. Barack Obama’s online fund-raising.

Concerns about anonymous donations seeping into the campaign began to surface last month, mainly on conservative blogs. Some bloggers described their own attempts to display the flaws in Obama’s fundraising program, donating under such obviously phony names as Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein, and reported that the credit card transactions were permitted.

Obama officials said it should be obvious that it is as much in their campaign’s interest as it is in the public’s interest for fake contributions to be turned back, and said they have taken pains to establish a barrier to prevent them. Over the course of the campaign, they said, a number of additional safeguards have been added to bulk up the security of their system.

In a paper outlining those safeguards, provided to The Washington Post, the campaign said it runs twice-daily sweeps of new donations, looking for irregularities. Flagged contributions are manually reviewed by a team of lawyers, then cleared or refunded. Reports of misused credit cards lead to immediate refunds.

It is not in Obama’s interest that fake contributions be turned back. Sorry, but it isn’t. Fake contributions spend just like real contributions.

Second, the Post report ignores the fact that the most basic anti-fraud checks on credit card donations have been disabled by the Obama campaign. On Friday, the National Journal reported that one of their reporters successfully donated $25 to the Obama campaign Web site using a pre-paid American Express gift card. The McCain campaign’s Web site refused the same method of payment. Why the difference? Well, pre-paid gift cards allow donations to be made with only the donor’s word as to who they are. Those gift cards are available in amounts up to $1,000. If the donor chooses a name out of the phone book, instead of “Saddam Hussein” or “Osama bin Laden,” it’s extremely unlikely that Obama’s anti-fraud team would be able to identify the illegal donations.

The simplest way to prevent illegal donations is use the Address Verification System that is the default of every online commerce site. Obama has intentionally disabled his. His “safeguards” are insufficient to the task — as has been demonstrated in recent days — and serve only to provide political coverage for an unknown amount of fraud.

25
Oct

Journalistic modus operandi

Michael S. Malone — a longtime journalist — has a piece up over at Pajamas Media decrying the one-sided media coverage of this presidential campaign. I encourage you to read the entire the entire thing, but I want to highlight a couple bits.

But nothing, nothing I’ve seen has matched the media bias on display in the current Presidential campaign.  Republicans are justifiably foaming at the mouth over the sheer one-sidedness of the press coverage of the two candidates and their running mates.  But in the last few days, even Democrats, who have been gloating over the pass – no, make that shameless support – they’ve gotten from the press, are starting to get uncomfortable as they realize that no one wins in the long run when we don’t have a free and fair press.  I was one of the first people in the traditional media to call for the firing of Dan Rather – not because of his phony story, but because he refused to admit his mistake – but, bless him, even Gunga Dan thinks the media is one-sided in this election.

Now, don’t get me wrong.  I’m not one of those people who think the media has been too hard on, say, Gov. Palin, by rushing reportorial SWAT teams to Alaska to rifle through her garbage.  This is the Big Leagues, and if she wants to suit up and take the field, then Gov. Palin better be ready to play.  The few instances where I think the press has gone too far – such as the Times reporter talking to Cindy McCain’s daughter’s MySpace friends – can easily be solved with a few newsroom smackdowns and temporary repostings to the Omaha Bureau.

No, what I object to (and I think most other Americans do as well) is the lack of equivalent hardball coverage of the other side – or worse, actively serving as attack dogs for Senators Obama and Biden.  If the current polls are correct, we are about to elect as President of the United States a man who is essentially a cipher, who has left almost no paper trail, seems to have few friends (that at least will talk) and has entire years missing out of his biography.  That isn’t Sen. Obama’s fault:  his job is to put his best face forward.  No, it is the traditional media’s fault, for it alone (unlike the alternative media) has had the resources to cover this story properly, and has systematically refused to do so.

Malone goes on to identify this campaign’s low point the attacks on Joe “The Plumber” Wurzelbacher — a guy who did nothing more than ask a question to which Obama gave an inconveniently honest answer. Which brings us to this report that some of the dirt dug up on Wurzelbacher may have been illegally accessed by Democratic partisans in Ohio government.

“State and local officials are investigating if state and law-enforcement computer systems were illegally accessed when they were tapped for personal information about “Joe the Plumber.”

Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher became part of the national political lexicon Oct. 15 when Republican presidential candidate John McCain mentioned him frequently during his final debate with Democrat Barack Obama.

The 34-year-old from the Toledo suburb of Holland is held out by McCain as an example of an American who would be harmed by Obama’s tax proposals.

Public records requested by The Dispatch disclose that information on Wurzelbacher’s driver’s license or his sport-utility vehicle was pulled from the Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles database three times shortly after the debate.

Information on Wurzelbacher was accessed by accounts assigned to the office of Ohio Attorney General Nancy H. Rogers, the Cuyahoga County Child Support Enforcement Agency and the Toledo Police Department.

It has not been determined who checked on Wurzelbacher, or why. Direct access to driver’s license and vehicle registration information from BMV computers is restricted to legitimate law enforcement and government business.

Before I quote the next paragraph of the Columbus Dispatch story, I want to jump back to Malone’s piece for a moment.

Now, of course, there’s always been bias in the media.  Human beings are biased, so the work they do, including reporting, is inevitably colored.  Hell, I can show you ten different ways to color variations of the word “said” – muttered, shouted, announced, reluctantly replied, responded, etc. – to influence the way a reader will apprehend exactly the same quote.

Now back to the Dispatch.

Paul Lindsay, Ohio spokesman for the McCain campaign, attempted to portray the inquiries as politically motivated. [emphasis added]

That’s another alternative to “said.” One that is designed to elicit skepticism from the reader. But is that skepticism warranted? Can anyone seriously think of a non-politically motivated reason that Wurzelbacher’s information would be accessed right after he became a household name? Especially when we see that information gained from these searches about Wurzelbacher made it all over the media and left-wing blogs almost immediately?

Finally, I’d like to point you to this piece by sci-fi writer Orson Scott Card.

An open letter to the local daily paper — almost every local daily paper in America:

I remember reading All the President’s Men and thinking: That’s journalism.  You do what it takes to get the truth and you lay it before the public, because the public has a right to know.

This housing crisis didn’t come out of nowhere.  It was not a vague emanation of the evil Bush administration.

It was a direct result of the political decision, back in the late 1990s, to loosen the rules of lending so that home loans would be more accessible to poor people.  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were authorized to approve risky loans.

What is a risky loan?  It’s a loan that the recipient is likely not to be able to repay.

The goal of this rule change was to help the poor — which especially would help members of minority groups.  But how does it help these people to give them a loan that they can’t repay?  They get into a house, yes, but when they can’t make the payments, they lose the house — along with their credit rating.

They end up worse off than before.

This was completely foreseeable and in fact many people did foresee it.  One political party, in Congress and in the executive branch, tried repeatedly to tighten up the rules.  The other party blocked every such attempt and tried to loosen them.

Furthermore, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were making political contributions to the very members of Congress who were allowing them to make irresponsible loans.  (Though why quasi-federal agencies were allowed to do so baffles me.  It’s as if the Pentagon were allowed to contribute to the political campaigns of Congressmen who support increasing their budget.)

Isn’t there a story here?  Doesn’t journalism require that you who produce our daily paper tell the truth about who brought us to a position where the only way to keep confidence in our economy was a $700 billion bailout?  Aren’t you supposed to follow the money and see which politicians were benefiting personally from the deregulation of mortgage lending?

I have no doubt that if these facts had pointed to the Republican Party or to John McCain as the guilty parties, you would be treating it as a vast scandal.  “Housing-gate,” no doubt.  Or “Fannie-gate.”

Instead, it was Senator Christopher Dodd and Congressman Barney Frank, both Democrats, who denied that there were any problems, who refused Bush administration requests to set up a regulatory agency to watch over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and who were still pushing for these agencies to go even further in promoting sub-prime mortgage loans almost up to the minute they failed.

Card’s piece is entitled: “Would the Last Honest Reporter Please Turn On the Lights?”

Card is right that this is an issue the media should be covering, but aren’t. However, nothing’s going to change until there is a culture change at The New York Times, Washington Post, and the Los Angeles Times. With the current economic climate hitting newspapers hard, one of the first things to be cut at many papers was their Washington, D.C., bureaus. Papers are making an economic decision that they can get by with coverage over the wires by the big three newspapers and the Associated Press.

Nothing’s going to change anytime soon, so don’t hold your breath. The media is more interested in putting the Democrats in charge than they are maintaining their own credibility.

24
Oct

Are they this insane?

Last week some House Democrats held a hearing on a plan that would do away with 401(k) plans and replace them with what I’ll call Social Security v2.

A plan by Teresa Ghilarducci, professor of economic-policy analysis at the New School for Social Research in New York, contains elements that are being considered. She testified last week before Miller’s Education and Labor Committee on her proposal. 

At that hearing, the director of the Congressional Budget Office, Peter Orszag, testified that some $2 trillion in retirement savings has been lost over the past 15 months.

Under Ghilarducci’s plan, all workers would receive a $600 annual inflation-adjusted subsidy from the U.S. government but would be required to invest 5 percent of their pay into a guaranteed retirement account administered by the Social Security Administration. The money in turn would be invested in special government bonds that would pay 3 percent a year, adjusted for inflation.

The current system of providing tax breaks on 401(k) contributions and earnings would be eliminated.

Read further into the article and you get positive-sounding murmurs from people I wouldn’t trust to guard the penny tray at the local 7-Eleven.

U.S. News & World Report’s James Pethokoukis does some math on the proposed plan.

Ghilarducci would have workers abandon the stock market right at the bottom of the market. A stupid idea, according to Warren Buffett: "I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: ‘Put your mouth where your money was.’ Today my money and my mouth both say equities."

Ghilarducci would offer a lousy 3 percent return. The long-run return of the stock market, adjusted for inflation, is more like 7 percent. Look at it this way: Ten thousand dollars growing at 3 percent a year for 40 years leaves you with roughly $22,000. But $10,000 growing at 7 percent a year for 40 years leaves you with $150,000. That is a high price to pay for what Ghilarducci describes as the removal of "a source of financial anxiety and…fruitless discussions with brokers and financial sales agents, who are also desperate for more fees and are often wrong about markets." Please, I’ll take a bit of worry for an additional $128,000.

I will too — and it gets worse.

The Wall Street Journal’s James Taranto notes that: "workers would be able to pass on only half of their account balances to their heirs; presumably the government would seize the remaining half."

You’ve got to be kidding me? Would these nuts seriously try to put this plan through Congress?

And if you think the stock market is in the tank now, just imagine what would happen as people go and liquidate their 401(k) in order to avoid a government takeover of them.





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