02
Sep

Oceana has never been at war with Eastasia

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas met at the White House today for U.S.-sponsored peace talks.

You can call me a realist; the talks will fail.

The Israelis will be lucky only if these latest round of “talks” don’t result in a third intifada.

Why do I say this? Because there is no hunger on the ground in the Palestinian territories for peace. Hamas, with its pledge to destroy Israel still in place, controls the Gaza Strip and continues to fire rockets into Israel. They also still hold Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit – or his body. A look at memri.org, the Middle East Media Research Institute will show that the Israelis are still demonized in Palestinian media, suicide bombers and other terrorists are revered in Palestinian society and Abbas holds onto his power by his fingernails (and he’s 1 1/2 years past the end of his elected term).

Does anyone really believe that a) he’ll sign on to a peace deal and b) he’d live more than 24 hours after his return to the West Bank after signing the aforementioned deal and c) a majority of Palestinians would abide by the deal?

Peace won’t come until there is a fundamental change in Palestinian society – and that shows no sign of occurring anytime soon.

On a related note: New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman has consumed so much Kool-Aid it’s a wonder his eyes aren’t cherry-colored.

President Obama is embarking on something I’ve never seen before — taking on two Missions Impossible at the same time. That is, a simultaneous effort to heal the two most bitter divides in the Middle East: the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Shiite-Sunni conflict centered in Iraq.

Friedman’s eyes must’ve been closed from 2003-2008, when President George W. Bush was doing the same thing – and better.

31
Aug

What Obama should say

The Weekly Standard’s Bill Kristol has some good advice for President Obama on what he should say tonight in his oval office speech on Iraq.

And I hope you would also explain that, whatever one’s views of the decision to go to war, we now have a moral obligation and strategic opportunity to help a free and democratic Iraq succeed. This means emphasizing that we expect to work closely with Iraq in the future, and that we are open to stationing troops there. It means not repeating the vulgar and counter-productive emphasis in your Saturday address—"But the bottom line is this: the war is ending. Like any sovereign, independent nation, Iraq is free to chart its own course. And by the end of next year, all our troops will be home."

Of course Iraq is free to chart its own course—as is South Korea, and for that matter Afghanistan or Pakistan or, say, Mexico. But in speaking of those nations, American presidents usually express a commitment to working with them to help them in a variety of ways to help them on a course that is good for them and good for our national security.

Read the whole thing, because it will be informative to compare this with what Obama will say tonight. All indications are that Obama is still unwilling to admit that his charge that the surge would be a failure when he was a Senator wrong. And that if President Bush had followed Obama’s advice, Obama would be giving a very different speech tonight.

31
Aug

Landslide, tsunami …

Liken it to whatever natural disaster you will, it looks like Democrats are going to get demolished come November.

gallupchart The 10-point margin for Republicans on the generic ballot is the largest since Gallup started polling on that subject in the 1940s. Democrats have had bigger margins (at the height of the Watergate scandal), but never Republicans.

It’s the economy stupid, and despite “recovery summer” and President Obama telling us that we’re heading in the right direction, people aren’t buying it.

Jeff Dobbs illustrates this disconnect between our political elites and what I like to call “reality” with this chart:

Obama direction

I’m pretty confident that Nancy Pelosi won’t be Speaker of the House come January – and that’s not just because Joe “LeBron will stay in Cleveland” Biden assured us of Democratic control. The question will be whether Republicans can capture 10 seats in the Senate – a long shot merely because Democrats have relatively few seats to defend in this off-year election.

What will be interesting to see at that point is whether President Obama pulls a Clinton and tacks more to the political center or if he remains steadfast and becomes a 1 term president.

30
Aug

Whatever you incentivize, you get more of

I mentioned economist Richard Barro’s work a month ago in the context of the ludicrous claim that a $1 of unemployment insurance spurs $1.63 of economic activity.

Barro is back today with another op-ed in The Wall Street Journal on the tricky subject of unemployment insurance.

Here’s the key number:

To get a rough quantitative estimate of the implications for the unemployment rate, suppose that the expansion of unemployment-insurance coverage to 99 weeks had not occurred and—I assume—the share of long-term unemployment had equaled the peak value of 24.5% observed in July 1983. Then, if the number of unemployed 26 weeks or less in June 2010 had still equaled the observed value of 7.9 million, the total number of unemployed would have been 10.4 million rather than 14.6 million. If the labor force still equaled the observed value (153.7 million), the unemployment rate would have been 6.8% rather than 9.5%.

Barro makes a point that is all too obviously true: the extension of unemployment benefits has increased the duration of people being unemployed.

Personally, after I was laid off by the Union-Tribune last year, I was not in too big of a rush to land another job because of unemployment insurance. The right job came along rather quickly, but because of the floor that unemployment insurance gave me, there were certain low-paying jobs that I would not consider because the government was giving me more money to look for a job rather than actually do a job.

I’ve said before that there’s a place for unemployment insurance, but two years is far too long.

29
Aug

Charlie Crist’s principles

One wonders how Charlie Crist can still have a viable candidacy. Last week he told an interviewer that had he been in the Senate at the time, he would’ve voted for Obamacare. The next day he said he misspoke.

By the Weekly Standard’s count, he’s had six different positions on the subject.

Does anyone doubt that Crist would still be a Republican today had he not faced a primary challenge from Marco Rubio?

“Those are my principles, and if you don’t like them… well, I have others.”

It was funny when Groucho Marx said it. In the real world, you’d think that such a cynical attitude would doom a politician. But it seems like 1/3 of Floridians like their politicians to be flexible.

29
Aug

Ever wonder if you’re being used?

Sojourners’ head Jim Wallis recently got into a spat with Marvin Olasky of World magazine after Olasky charged that Wallis’ organization had received funding from famous lefty George Soros’ Open Society Institute. Wallis attacked Olasky, saying that “he lies for a living” and that Sojourners hasn’t gotten money from Soros. Wallis was wrong, and when first confronted with the evidence demurred saying that he responded to the attack in “the spirit of the accusation” – not exactly a Christ-like response. Wallis has since apologized.

Amid all of that, comes this report from Jay Richards over at National Review’s The Corner on the sources of Sojourners funding.

The “clarification” of his earlier statement is equally unsatisfying. First, Wallis is still trying to claim that his organization transcends the Manichean political divide of left and right. They just do “biblical social justice,” he insists. But again, as I show in much more detail elsewhere, Wallis and Sojourners regularly couple strained, narrow readings of scriptural texts and a vaguely Marxist economic foundation to arrive at political and economic positions that are well left of center and far afield of a far more nuanced charity and justice tradition stretching back through almost 2,000 years of orthodox Christian thought.

Second, it’s implausible for Wallis to claim that grants between 2004 and 2007 totaling $325,000 are “the tiniest fraction” of Sojourners’ funding. Worse, the three grants from Soros’s Open Society Institute are only the tip of the iceberg. Based on publicly-available 990s, I’ve discovered that Sojourners received at least forty-nine separate foundation grants between 2003 and 2009, totaling $2,159,346. Not one of these is from a discernibly conservative foundation. Very few are from discernibly Christian foundations.

Besides the Soros grants, for instance, there are two 2006 grants from the infamous Tides Foundation totaling $72,106; a Ford Foundation grant in 2008 for $100,000; a Rockefeller Brothers Fund grant for $100,000 in 2005; and a $50,000 grant from the Wallace Global Fund in 2008. The Wallace Global Fund also supports ACORN and a cornucopia of population-control groups.

Three grants, totaling $20,000 between 2005 and 2007, are from the Streisand Foundation in California. Yes, that Streisand foundation. (That’s just funny.) Other recipients of Streisand philanthropy include People for the American Way and Planned Parenthood Federation of America. This is very left-wing company.

I think Wallis just needs to come to grips with the fact that he is on the political and religious left.

For all of the dismay that some Christian leaders express for the fact that many evangelical Christians are beholden to the GOP and the political right, there’s far less agonizing over Wallis and the mainline Christian churches allegiance to the Democrats.

If I had so many people who really oppose what I say are my deeply held beliefs giving me money, I’d wonder if I was being used.

At what point do you come to the conclusion that their funding undermines your message? Do you ignore your funders’ questionable motives an go ahead with getting your message out despite the questions about hypocrisy and allegations they you’re little more than a tool? Would your message be more credible, and have more impact, even if you had less money?

These are some things Wallis might want to think about.

29
Aug

For the record

Here’s a graph from the CBO on the Bush era federal deficits and Iraq War spending.

Deficits_IraqWar

A couple of things to note: First, note the trendline until we get to the TARP bailout, etc. in 2008. Second, the Obama administration stimulus plan added more to the deficit than all the Iraq War spending combined.

28
Aug

They work for us

We’re starting to see more and more stories about law enforcement officials – both cops and prosecutors – abusing the law in order to hide their activities. The latest case in point is that of Felicia Laverene Gibson who was arrested and subsequently found guilty (though apparently not in a jury trial) of “resisting, obstructing or delaying an officer.”

What was Gibson doing? Oh, just what every TV station does all the time, and now that video cameras are built-in to phones and digital cameras, what everyone else does too – she was videotaping a traffic stop.

OK, fair enough. Cops can ask bystanders to move away. They understandably don’t want people crowding around them.

But Gibson wasn’t standing over the cop’s shoulder – she was standing on her nearby porch – with several other people who were not arrested. Here’s an edited version of the video – she’s obviously nowhere near the cops.

In Maryland, officials have used the state’s wiretapping laws in order to claim that police officers have an expectation of privacy when doing traffic stops and have tossed people in jail for taking videos with sound of their encounters with police.

Of course, these same police have dashboard cameras in their cars and are mic’d in their encounters with the public, but citizens apparently aren’t allowed the same rights.

The police, the prosecutors, the judges … they work for us.

The police, the prosecutors, the judges need to keep that in mind. If they forget, well, then you need to elect some public officials to remind them.

26
Aug

Malice or incompetence?

I generally go with incompetence – it’s better to think the best of people. But to hear New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie explain how his state lost out on $400 million in federal education funds, you wonder if there might be a little something else involved.

One wonders if any beltway reporters would be interested in taking up this issue with the White House. Probably not, they’re still deep in the tank full of hope and change.

UPDATE!

It appears that the state schools chief lied to Gov. Christie about what he told the feds during his presentation – he didn’t provide the correct numbers – and has been fired (over the lying, not the mistake).

24
Aug

The day has finally come

More than five years ago, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman assailed President Bush’s proposal for partial privatization of Social Security and promised a “real plan to strengthen Social Security.”

I created a banner, and some other bloggers put it up on their sites in the vain hope of shaming Krugman into delivering on his promise.

I gave up after 65 columns and 256 days later, Krugman had failed to deliver.

Last week, the day finally came. Here’s the updated banner:

KrugmanPlan Yes, the last number is still correct. You see, Krugman finally revealed his solution to the Social Security problem.

There is no problem.

That’s right, there is no problem.

About that math: Legally, Social Security has its own, dedicated funding, via the payroll tax (“FICA” on your pay statement). But it’s also part of the broader federal budget. This dual accounting means that there are two ways Social Security could face financial problems. First, that dedicated funding could prove inadequate, forcing the program either to cut benefits or to turn to Congress for aid. Second, Social Security costs could prove unsupportable for the federal budget as a whole.

But neither of these potential problems is a clear and present danger. Social Security has been running surpluses for the last quarter-century, banking those surpluses in a special account, the so-called trust fund. The program won’t have to turn to Congress for help or cut benefits until or unless the trust fund is exhausted, which the program’s actuaries don’t expect to happen until 2037 — and there’s a significant chance, according to their estimates, that that day will never come.

As I pointed out long ago, there is no lockbox. Krugman refers to the trust fund, it’s the same thing. That trust fund holds nothing more than meaningless IOUs. I wonder if Krugman would give me a personal loan for a couple hundred thousand dollars based on the fact that I’d written myself an IOU for $2 billion.

Krugman’s dishonesty is shocking. He knows better, but he’ll lie for transparent political points that only his sycophantic amen chorus will believe.

So, more than five years later, the banner is officially retired, along with any hope that Krugman could ever be an honest broker.

On a related note: Bruce McQuain has similar thoughts on this issue here.






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